Expect Dennis Schroder to take on a big role for Lakers tonight

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Thursday, May 4, 2023

Happy Thursday, everybody. Thanks to the NBA's odd playoff scheduling practices and it being a get-away day in MLB, we've got a slightly limited slate of sports action tonight.

But the one NBA game on the docket is Warriors-Lakers. If you're only going to show one game, it might as well be the one with the most appeal.

We've got two more Stanley Cup Playoff games tonight too, so it's not as if we'll be hurting for things to watch; we just won't have as many options as we're used to around here. Thankfully, I didn't have any trouble finding bets worth making, but before we get to them, let's catch up on the latest twists and turns in the world of sport.

Some teams helped their young QBs in the NFL Draft. Others, not so much.

Each NFL team's most questionable draft pick.

How often will we see Steph Curry in the pick-and-roll tonight?

All right, I have two player props for the Warriors and Lakers game tonight, but neither is an over/under play on Steph in the pick-and-roll. Let's get to them.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The Hot Ticket

Lakers at Warriors, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Key Trend: In four games against Golden State, Schroder is averaging 21.75 points and assists.

The Pick: Dennis Schroder Over 11.5 Points & Assists (-129)

When it comes to betting player props, I like to look for instances where the sportsbooks are going off averages and projections for a player and not paying enough attention to the particular matchup. They're not always easy to find, but I believe I've found one tonight.

Dennis Schroder was primarily a starter until D'Angelo Russell showed up, and then Schroder moved to the bench to lead the second unit. However, there are certain matchups in which the team leans on him more than others, despite his non-starting role. Golden State is one of those teams where Schroder's role grows because, based on what I see, Darvin Ham wants him defending this team on the perimeter a lot more than he wants D'Angelo Russell to do so.

This also leads to Schroder taking on a more prominent role on the offensive end. Schroder averaged 21.75 points and assists per game against the Warriors in four games this season. In Game 1, Schroder finished with 19 points and three assists. While I don't expect he'll play as much of a scoring role tonight, he should continue getting plenty of minutes.

So far in the postseason, Schroder has played five games where he was on the floor for at least 20 minutes. In those five games, he's averaged 12.6 points and assists per game. The only time he finished below the total in those games was Game 6 against Memphis when he scored only two points but had five assists.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game:The Projection Model doesn't like anything when it comes to the traditional plays, but our SportsLine handicappers have found a whole host of props they're happy to bet tonight.

The Picks

One more Lakers vs. Warriors pick

The Pick: Jordan Poole Over 1.5 3pt FG (-163) --There has been a lot of debate about Jordan Poole's deep three-point attempt at the end of Game 1. I don't care. Good shot or bad shot, the only thing that matters to me in the context of this bet is that Poole took the shot. You know why he took the shot? Because there's no shot Poole doesn't believe he will make.

This attitude prevails through the Warriors shooters, and it's one Steve Kerr, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson encourage Poole to have. So he may have missed the shot in Game 1, but that will not discourage Poole from taking more shots tonight. He will keep chucking, and darn it, two of them will probably go in.

MLB

Blue Jays at Red Sox, 6:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TVThe Pick: Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 Total Bases (+123) --Yoshida has been as good as the Red Sox could've hoped for since signing him and bringing him across the Pacific Ocean. He's hitting .303/.391/.515 in his first 115 plate appearances with five home runs and 21 runs driven in. He's also walked more time (13) than he's struck out (11). Of note, he's been better against righties and has shown more power against them. Of his 11 extra-base hits, nine have come against righties, and he has an XBH% of 11.1% against righties, which is pretty dang good.

In the last week, Yoshida has swung at only 30% of the pitches he's seen, but he's made contact 92.6% of the time when he does swing. His barrel rate is 13.6%, and his hard-hit rate is 72.7% in that stretch. All of which suggests he's locked in at the plate and isn't wasting his time swinging at anything he isn't going to crush.

SportsLine Pick of the Day:Not only does the Projection Model have an A-graded play on the total in tonight's game between the Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken, but three SportsLine handicappers are on the same play as well.

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