Guardians are a top play vs. Rays | Chris Sale's return should boost Red Sox

Drew Lock is not invited to this newsletter's Christmas party this year. When picking the Vikings +3.5 against the Seahawks in a preseason game yesterday, I wrote that we could see a situation in which the Seahawks jumped out to an early lead at home, and then the Vikings backups would "come back" and win the game. We saw the same story play out in the Hall of Fame Game the week before.

Well, we were half right. There was a comeback last night, but it was by Seattle after the Vikings jumped out to a 13-0 lead. Lock played three quarters! I did not see that coming! I don't know if Seattle is trying to shop him or if they're giving him a legit chance to wrestle the job away from Geno Smith, but I did not appreciate it!

As a result, we're staying away from betting NFL preseason games tonight. We need to take some deep breaths and gather our thoughts. Thankfully, we not only have plenty of baseball tonight, but Premier League soccer resumes this weekend. I've included a match from Saturday and Sunday to get you through the weekend.

• Must-see rookies in this weekend's preseason.
• The Raiders have brought in a new running back.
• The Padres can still make a run.
• The future of the College Football Playoff.

Let's start the weekend with some winners.

All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLine consensus

Guardians at Rays, 6:40 p.m. | TV: ESPN+

• The Pick: Guardians (+180)
• Key Trend: Since starting the season 23-6 in April, the Rays are only 46-42.

Tampa Bay is a better team than Cleveland. While the Rays have not been much better than a .500 ballclub since their scorching-hot start in April, Cleveland hasn't even managed that level of success. The Guardians are 56-60, and even though they're within 3.5 games of first in the AL Central, the front office decided to sell at the trade deadline.

It was a smart move considering that even if Cleveland managed to stink a little less than Minnesota down the stretch, this isn't a team that was going anywhere in the playoffs.

One of the players the Guardians traded away was starting pitcher Aaron Civale. He was sent to Tampa and will start for the Rays against his former team. Civale is the classic depth starter. He's not the guy you want standing on the mound in a playoff game, but he's good enough to help you get through the regular season. In fact, he's very similar to tonight's Cleveland starter Xzavion Curry.

Both sport ERAs in the twos that should be much higher. Neither misses many bats nor walks a ton of hitters, but both are prone to some loud contact. Civale is better than Curry in the latter category, but not so much so that the Rays should be favored by as much as they are tonight.

Tampa's advantage in the matchup is its offense, which is much better than Cleveland's, and the reason the Rays should be heavy favorites tonight. They just shouldn't be this heavy a favorite, particularly with a bullpen that's shouldered a pretty hefty workload lately backing Civale.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game:The Projection Model does not agree with me, though it has nothing more than a C-grade on any play in this game.

Tigers at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Red Sox (-142) --Chris Sale will do something tonight he hasn't done often enough in recent years: he'll pitch. Sale has been out since leaving a start against the Reds on June 1 due to shoulder inflammation. He's not expected to go deep in the game, but even three or four innings will be a boost for Boston against the hapless Tigers. While Sale got off to a terrible start, he posted a 2.25 ERA with a strikeout rate of 29.5% over his final six starts.

Even a bit rusty, I'd expect Sale to be successful against a Detroit offense that's one of the more free-swinging units in the league. Tarik Skubal, who missed the first three months of the season with his own injury troubles, starts for Detroit. He's been effective but has not pitched deep into games, and after not allowing a run in his first two starts, he's posted an ERA of 5.21 in his last four.

Orioles at Mariners, 10:10 p.m | TV: MLB Network
The Pick: Mariners (-139) --I live to fade Baltimore starter Kyle Gibson, who is experiencing one of the most blessed existences of any starter in baseball. Gibson is 11-6 on the season, and the Orioles are 14-10 in his starts despite the fact he has an ERA of 4.50 and a strikeout rate well below the league average. That's what happens when your offense averages 5.21 runs per game in your starts (compared to 4.86 runs in games he doesn't).

Meanwhile, Seattle starter Luis Castillo is 7-7 despite an ERA of 3.21, a strikeout rate 20% better than the league average and a walk rate 28% better than the league average. Life isn't fair, but while the Mariners are only 11-12 in Castillo's starts, they're 8-5 when he starts at home, where he has an ERA of 2.79 this season.

Bournemouth vs. West Ham, Saturday, 10 a.m | TV: Peacock
The Pick: Bournemouth (+170) --I do not like West Ham's vibe. The Hammers are coming off a strange season that saw them win the Europa Conference League final, earning another spot in Europe, all the while barely managing to avoid relegation from the Premier League. You also get the sense West Ham wanted to replace manager David Moyes but couldn't because they won the Conference League, and now they're stuck in between.

Oh, and they sold their most important player, Declan Rice, to Arsenal. All the money they got for Rice is going toward questionable signings I do not understand, but they are clearly the preferred options of the manager I'm not totally sure the club wants. I get the sense West Ham will be in a relegation scrap again this year, and their opponent here might be too. Bournemouth finished a point behind West Ham last season, and while the Cherries haven't done much to make me think they take a step forward, in the season opener at home, I think they can get the job done.

Chelsea vs. Liverpool, Sunday, 11:30 a.m | TV: Peacock
The Pick: Over 2.5 (-150) --Last year these teams faced off twice in the Premier League, and both matches finished in a scoreless draw. So let's bet the over this time! Seriously, it makes sense; you have to let me explain. Chelsea was an absolute mess last year, and now that it's gotten rid of some of the dead weight (it put on its own back, to be clear) and has a manager who has had an entire preseason to get the team ready, I expect we'll see Chelsea finish higher than 12th place.

As for Liverpool, the lineup it sent out for one of those scoreless draws was not near full strength, and it showed. In the other, the two teams finished with a combined xG of 3.0, yet nothing crossed the line. The second match had an xG of 2.5. So while neither team scored, there were plenty of chances. Finally, it's the first week of the season. New teammates are learning each other and systems. That can sometimes lead to poor defensive play, particularly in matches that feature the attacking talent this one will.

SportsLine Pick of the Day:Looking for more soccer action? SportsLine's Brandt Sutton has everything you need to know about betting Saturday's match between Arsenal and Nottingham Forest.