If the Warriors win tonight, Draymond Green will be a big reason why

There was plenty of talk in this morning's newsletter about the first round of the NFL Draft Thursday night, but I want to take a moment to congratulate the Detroit Lions for clinching the 1995 NFC Central title. The Lions had two picks in the first round last night and used them on a running back (Jahmyr Gibbs) and linebacker (Jack Campbell). They're very good players... but they play the least valuable positions in the sport!

Running backs have long been seen as replaceable, and even the teams that draft the good ones don't win a ton. In recent years, off-ball linebackers like Campbell have become the running backs of the defense. Teams know they need them, but nobody wants to invest in them.

So here are the Lions, a team that seems poised to make a solid run in the NFC North with Green Bay in flux, Chicago rebuilding and Minnesota being not exactly a juggernaut. And they use their two first-round picks on players they don't need. Oh, did I not mention that the Lions already had D'Andre Swift at RB and signed RB David Montgomery in free agency this offseason? Then they took another RB with the 12th pick. I don't get it, but as a Bears fan, I appreciate it, much like I hope you appreciate these stories and today's picks.

• Speaking of the draft, how about a mock for Round 2 tonight?
• The best fits for the remaining QBs.
• The Cardinals are saying they don't see a Nuk Hopkins trade happening.
• Deion's roster purge in Boulder is a sign of things to come.

OK, so the draft makes this a Football Friday, so let's have a Football Friday amount of picks.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Kings at Warriors, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN

• Key Trend: Draymond Green is averaging 25.5 PAR per game in the series.
• The Pick: Draymond Green Over 23.5 Points, Assists & Rebounds (-109)

The Discourse never stops when it comes to Draymond Green because Draymond Green is determined to keep it that way. No matter what's happening, he always finds a way to inject himself into the middle of a situation. It works for him. It's who he is.

What gets lost in all of it, though, is that while he may no longer be the player he was five or six years ago, Green is still a solid player and integral part of what the Warriors do. It's hard to argue they aren't better with him than without him, because he does many of those "little things" you always hear coaches raving about.

He's also done more of the big things since returning from his suspension. After missing Game 3 in this series for stomping Sacramento's Domantas Sabonis in the chest, Green has averaged 16.5 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists in the last two games. Even in the first two games, when he scored only 12 points, Green combined for 29 rebounds and assists.

He fills the stat sheet. While he won't score 21 points again tonight, he will continue facilitating the offense and crashing the boards. Nobody on Golden State wants to head back to Sacramento for a Game 7. The Warriors will do everything in their power to end the series tonight, including Green doing everything he can. Even if that means stomping somebody in the chest again.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game:The Projection Model is leaning toward the under tonight, but there's no shortage of plays available thanks to SportsLine's handicappers.

Grizzlies at Lakers, 10:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Grizzlies +5 (-110) --Doesn't it seem too convenient to buy the idea that the Lakers have suddenly figured things out? Memphis beat the Lakers by 17 points in Game 5 to extend the series -- a Memphis team that finished the regular season with the second-best record in the West despite being without Ja Morant for 20 games.

Meanwhile, this is still the same Lakers team that needed the play-in to qualify, right? The same Lakers team that is only 33-44 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season? My point is, the longer this series goes, the worse the Lakers will get. Dillon Brooks poked the wrong bear, but he wasn't wrong about the bear being old. This will be the 14th straight game LeBron James has played in, which is not something he's used to doing! The Lakers may close this thing out tonight, but I don't see the Grizzlies making it easy.

Diamondbacks at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 strikeouts (-135) --Familiarity breeds contempt, and Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has plenty of familiarity with Colorado Rockies hitters. And I bet he doesn't like them very much

Kelly is not a high-strikeout pitcher. His strikeout rate of 22.1% since last season is just below average for an MLB starter in that time. However, he's been well below average against this Rockies team. Current Rockies hitters have a combined 135 plate appearances against Kelly and a strikeout rate of only 14.1%. So when you combine that history with the thin air of Colorado, there's a very real chance Kelly doesn't stick around long enough tonight to get that fifth strikeout.

Roma vs. AC Milan, Saturday, 12 p.m. | TV: Paramount+
The Pick: Roma (+175) --While Napoli could clinch Serie A this weekend, the race for the other three Champions League spots is still very interesting, particularly now that Juventus has had its 15-point penalty rescinded (for now, at least). Entering the weekend, Roma and AC Milan are tied for fourth on 56 points with a goal differential of +14. This match is rather important to both!

They're also in similar situations: AC Milan remains in the Champions League, while Roma is in the Europa League. Both clubs must navigate the choppy waters of succeeding in one competition without hurting their chances in the other, and that's not easy to do.

When looking at this match, though, I don't think Roma is getting nearly enough respect on the market. Like most teams, Milan has been much better at home than away from it. It has an expected goal differential (xGD) of +0.67 at home compared to +0.27 on the road. In more concrete terms, Milan has a goal differential of +13 at home compared to +1 at home and scores only 1.31 goals per match on the road compared to 2.00 at home. More pertinent, Milan has won only two of its last nine matches away from San Siro (I'm not counting the 1-0 "road" loss to Inter). It's been outscored 17-11 in those matches, including Milan's 4-0 win at Napoli. Meanwhile, Roma has won 11 of its last 13 at home.

Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur, Sunday, 11:30 a.m. | TV: USA
The Pick: Liverpool (-200) --Another match where the home/road splits make things a little too obvious. Before I get to that, though, I want to make it clear I'm not worried about any positive vibes from Tottenham coming back from a 2-0 deficit to draw Manchester United during the week. While it was nice to see signs of life, one half does not negate the club's problems. Its xGD per match at home this season is at +0.57. On the road, where it'll be this week, it's -0.25 per match.

And guess what? Liverpool is an entirely different team at home. Its xGD per match is +1.19 at Anfield compared to -0.15 everywhere else. More important, Liverpool is finally starting to look decent again. Sure, its last three matches have been against Leeds United, Nottingham Forest and West Ham, but it won all three convincingly. Plus, the 2-2 draw to Arsenal earlier this month was misleading. Using xG, Liverpool "outscored" Arsenal 3.9-1.4 in that match. Liverpool can pass Tottenham in the table and climb into the Europa League spots with a win here. That may not have been the goal at the start of the season, but it's all Liverpool has to play for right now, and I expect it'll put its best foot forward trying to achieve it.

SportsLine Pick of the Day:The Projection Model says they're giving out free money in Chicago tonight.