The Guardians and Twins lead tonight's MLB best bets against favorable pitching matchups

Like many of you, I watched the NBA Draft Thursday night, and while I don't know how you felt about it, I was struck by how little interest I had in it. Some of this was undoubtedly due to the Chicago Bulls not having a first-round pick, but more than anything, I think it was the lack of familiarity with the players.

Of the first seven players selected in the draft, only two played college basketball in the United States: Alabama's Brandon Miller (No. 2) and Arkansas' Anthony Black (No. 6). They spent one year in school. The other five picks were from outside the United States or played in the G League.

While I'm sure some of you love grinding those European basketball games or the G League, part of what makes the typical NBA fan invested in the draft is the ability to have opinions on the players being selected. They don't have to be good opinions, but it's hard to feel any type of way about somebody you've only seen on YouTube.

No sport can compete with the NFL in any facet, but part of the NFL Draft's appeal is that you've seen most players chosen play at the college level for years. You know their names and their games. The NBA Draft is missing that at the top of the first round, making it far less interesting of a viewing experience. However, it's still great to read about, and thankfully we've got plenty of reading for you to do.

• All 58 draft picks graded for your reading pleasure.
• The biggest snubs of the draft.
• Gary Parrish has a 2024 NBA Mock Draft ready for you too.

Now for some Friday night degeneracy.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Brewers at Guardians, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

• Key Trend: The Guardians are 9-2 in their last 11 against a lefty starter.
• The Pick: Guardians (-135)

Milwaukee starter Wade Miley has proven to be a pleasant surprise for the Brewers. After two solid seasons with the Reds and Cubs in 2021 and 2022, Miley moved within the NL Central as a free agent this offseason, and through nine starts with the Brewers, he's 4-2 with a 3.28 ERA. There's only one problem.

Wade Miley's ERA should be much higher than 3.28.

I have no idea how he's doing it, but Miley's WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) of 1.093 is the best mark of his career. This is despite having a 14.8% strikeout rate, which is 34% below the league average for MLB starters in 2023, and also the lowest mark Miley has had in a season since he was last with Milwaukee in 2018. He's surviving this due to excellent control, but somebody who allows as much flyball contact as Miley does probably won't survive a swinging strike rate of only 6.8% and a barrel rate against of 10.1% for long.

Of course, Cleveland's Shane Bieber has seen his strikeout rate plummet this season too, but Bieber still manages to miss bats, and the contact he allows is far more tilted to the groundball kind. Plus, Bieber will be facing a Milwaukee lineup in a funk right now.

Milwaukee's wRC+ of 68 over the last week ranks 25th in the league, as the Brewers have slashed .188/.273/.341. Maybe they'll break out of it tonight, but I'll take the offense that makes contact (Cleveland's contact rate of 79.6% ranks 3rd in MLB) against the pitcher who allows far too much of it.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game:The SportsLine Projection Model has an A-graded play on this one tonight, but it's not on the moneyline.

Twins at Tigers, 6:40 p.m | TV: ESPN+

The Pick: Twins (-130) --The thing one must remember about AL Central baseball is that it is awful, and therefore, every game between AL Central teams matters. You see, the Tigers are 32-41 this year. That's the 24th-worst record in the league, yet the 24th-worst team in baseball is only 4.5 games out of first because the 38-38 Minnesota Twins (17th of 30 MLB teams) is in first place. The Twins would be in last place in the AL East, 13 games out of first.

But they're not; they're in the Central, where I believe they'll widen their lead on the third-place Tigers tonight. I don't know how deep Kenta Maeda will go for the Twinkies tonight, but I'm not sure it matters. Minnesota's bullpen has been excellent this season, and Detroit starter Joey Wentz has a 6.82 ERA and gives up dingers at a terrifying rate. Wentz is backed by a Detroit pen that's been surprisingly solid but has been asked to cover 27.2 innings in the last week.

Mets at Phillies, 7:05 p.m | TV: Apple TV+

The Pick: Phillies (-120) --The weather forecast for tonight suggests there's a decent chance this game won't be played or, at a minimum, will be delayed. Still, assuming they get it in, I like the value on the Phillies here. I don't think either of these teams expected to find themselves behind the Marlins at this point of the year, let alone 10+ games behind the Braves, but life is full of curveballs.

However, the Phillies are showing some signs of life lately. They've lost two straight but have played much better baseball overall the last few weeks, while the Mets are still, well, they're still the Mets. Every day feels like a new disappointment. The Mets being 4-13 as road underdogs this season doesn't hurt my confidence much, either.

SportsLine Pick of the Day:There's one more A-graded MLB play on Friday night, and it's in the game between the Blue Jays and Athletics.