The Kansas-TCU rematch should see defense rule the day so the under is the play

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Sent on 20 February 2023 04:33 PM

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Monday, February 20, 2023
I did not watch the NBA All-Star Game on Sunday, but from what I've been told, it wasn't a good game. Even Denver Nuggets coach Michael Malone, who coached in the ASG, called it the "worst basketball game ever played." That means the same thing that always happens when an All-Star game stinks happened.
Everybody started wondering what they should do to fix it.
I find this funny because an All-Star Game will occasionally stink, no matter the sport or the format. That's how every All-Star Game works, but when the Timberwolves and Thunder play a stinker on a Tuesday night in December, nobody thinks the entire sport of basketball needs to be changed.
We've seen every professional league alter its All-Star Game. The NFL went to flag football this year. The NBA adopted the schoolyard team picking and Elam ending. The NHL All-Star Game is more of a tournament than a game. MLB, which has the best Game simply because it's hard to play baseball at half speed, used to have the Game decide homefield in the World Series before sanity was restored.
None of the changes have fixed anything, but I have a possible solution. What if we get rid of All-Star Games? They were created as a marketing showcase for leagues to sell their sport and superstars years ago and get the Game on national television so everybody can see it. But it's 2023. Any fan that wants to watch any team in any sport can do so now. The television deals for each league are huge. Everybody's rich. The All-Star Game is simply a relic we refuse to let die at this point.
Perhaps we should move on. Instead of an All-Star Break, how about we have a break? Give teams a week off later in the season to help prepare them for the stretch run and postseason instead.
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If I could fix the following games, I would, but I can't. Instead we'll just have to bet them The Respectful Way.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The Hot Ticket
No. 3 Kansas at No. 24 TCU, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN
Key Trend: The under is 5-0 in TCU's last five against teams with a winning record and it's 5-0 in Kansas' last five against teams with a winning record.
The Pick: Under 151.5 (-110)
A month ago, TCU pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the season so far. It wasn't that the Horned Frogs went to Lawrence and beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, but how badly they beat them. TCU won the game 83-60, dominating from start to finish. Well, things have changed a bit in the last month.
The loss was Kansas' second in a row, and a third would come a couple of nights later at Baylor. The sky was falling on the Jayhawks, but they've bounced back since, winning six of seven since, including "revenge wins" over Kansas State and Baylor. Tonight they look to complete the trifecta against a TCU team that has lost five of its last seven and now sits at 7-7 in the Big 12.
Well, I don't know who is going to win tonight. I lean Kansas, but it's not a strong one. The much better play is the total, which is a few points too high for my liking.
The first meeting finished with 143 points, which came in well below this total, but it's hard to imagine Kansas playing as poorly on the offensive end as it did in that game. Plus, with the outcome decided for most of the second half, the intensity wasn't quite there, and both teams seemed happy to get the game over with.
Tonight's contest should be much closer, but that rise in intensity could have the same effect on the point total. Despite the recent struggles, TCU remains one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12 in conference play, ranking second in the league in defensive efficiency. While Kansas isn't as strong as TCU, it isn't far behind, and its biggest strength matches up well tonight. Big 12 opponents are shooting only 47% from inside the arc against Kansas. That's the lowest number in the league. Well, TCU is the worst three-point shooting team in the league and does nearly all its damage on the interior. Odds are it won't be as effective as usual against the Kansas defense, meaning it will struggle a bit more to score.
That should help us avoid going over this total barring overtime.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game:The Projection Model and I are in agreement on the total, while SportsLine's Chip Patterson has a play in on the spread.
The Picks
College Basketball
Minnesota at Illinois, 9 p.m | TV: Big Ten Network The Pick: Illinois -15 (-110) --It's a tricky spot for both teams, as this is a makeup game after the original two weeks ago was postponed due to Minnesota players contracting COVID, and now both will play on short rest. I'm sure some Minnesota fans would've been OK with the team postponing the rest of the season because the Gophers have been far and away the worst team in the Big Ten. They're 1-13 in conference play and have lost nine straight by an average of 17.4 points per game. In that stretch, there have been more losses of 20+ (four) than single-digit losses (three).
It includes an 18-point home loss to this Illinois team that enters having lost two straight and three of four. However, all three losses were on the road, and Illinois nearly upset Indiana Saturday despite not having its leading scorer in Terrence Shannon. Given how important the win is for Illinois tonight and how poorly Minnesota plays on the road, I wouldn't be surprised if this one gets out of hand quickly.
Champions League
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid, Tuesday, 3 p.m | TV: CBSThe Pick: Over 2.5 (-150) --
One of the more humorous aspects of media coverage of European soccer, particularly when it comes to the big English clubs, is that one or two losses are a disaster, but a win or two ending the streak means everything is fixed. And that's where we find the narrative surrounding Liverpool after consecutive 2-0 wins over Everton and Newcastle. However, I'm not buying in. While the win over Everton was emphatic, the Newcastle match was quite misleading. Liverpool won 2-0, but the expected goals (xG) were much closer, with Liverpool winning 2.4-2.0. Based on what I saw, the same defensive issues Liverpool has dealt with nearly all season remained. Furthermore, Darwin Nunez left the match early, and there's no definitive answer on his status for Tuesday.
On the other side, there's a Real Madrid team that beat Liverpool in the Champions League final last spring, and Liverpool hasn't won any of their last six meetings with Madrid (one draw, five losses). The problem is Real Madrid has to be tired. Since the calendar flipped to 2023, Real Madrid has played 14 matches to Liverpool's eight, including trips to Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Complicating matters further, Real Madrid should have Karim Benzema, but neither Aurelien Tchouameni nor Toni Kroos will be available for the match, leaving it a bit light in the midfield. There's an excellent chance this one could get loose.
SportsLine Pick of the Day:The PGA Tour is building toward The Masters, and this weekend's schedule includes The Honda Classic, and SportsLine's Patrick McDonald has everything you need to know ahead of the event.
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