The Thunder-Pelicans spread is bigger than it should be

Good afternoon gambling aficionados, it's Chris Bengel back from vacation and back in your inbox. I'll be honest: while I was away, I was chomping at the bit to get back to the States and cash some tickets.

What a time of year it is for us sports nuts. We've got the start of the NBA postseason with the play-in tournament, which I'll have some picks for. The 2023 MLB season is now in full swing, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs are just days from getting underway.

Let's not waste any more time and get to Wednesday's picks.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Thunder at Pelicans, 9:30 p.m.| TV: ESPN

• The Pick: Thunder +5.5 (-110)
• Key Trend: The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in New Orleans

These are two very evenly matched teams and they've shown that in their previous meetings throughout the 2022-23 season. Still, I'm a tad surprised that the line is this large.

The Thunder are 1-2 vs. the Pelicans this season and only lost those two contests by a combined margin of six points. In any of their three meetings, the spread hasn't been more than 2.5 points on either side. Personally, I don't think that the Pelicans are a good enough basketball team to earn this much respect, even if they're playing on their home floor. This group will continue to be without Zion Williamson for Wednesday's play-in game and forced to rely on Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum to shoulder the bulk of the scoring load.

Meanwhile, the Thunder are one of the top scoring teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City is averaging 117.5 points-per-game (fifth in the NBA) while shooting 35.6 percent from beyond the arc. Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been tearing it up this season as he averaged 31.4 points-per-game (fourth in the league). Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 31 points in four of his last five contests, and will need to lead the charge if the Thunder want to cover in this spot.

The Pick: Over 212.5 (-110) -- I know what you're thinking. We've got two of the NBA's lowest-scoring teams doing battle here, so the Over may not make the most sense. However, with an Over/Under this low, the over has to be the play.

The Bulls are averaging 112.8 points-per-game in their last 10 and have only come up short of the century mark in one of those contests. On the season, that's right around their 113.1-point average, and this is a team that also shoots 36.1 percent from long-range. The two-headed monster of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan has been productive, and the Bulls have enough role players up-and-down their roster to keep up with the Raptors.

Meanwhile, the Raptors are averaging 112.6 points-per-game over the final 10 games of the regular season. During that stretch, Toronto has scored at least 110 points in seven of those games and their Over possesses a 6-4 mark. However, none of those games offered an Over/Under anywhere near as low as 212.5 points.

Key Trend: The Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Toronto.

The Pick: DeMar DeRozan Under 21.5 Points (-123)-- This DeMar DeRozan's points prop is just too intriguing to pass up on. In three meetings against the Raptors this season, DeRozan has scored 21 points. During those games, the Bulls star is averaging just 14 points, and sscored just nine points in one of the outings. DeRozan is shooting 53.8 percent (14-of-26) from the field, but the volume really hasn't been there to score into the low 20s.

It also doesn't hurt that the Raptors are the fourth-best defensive team in the NBA, as they surrender just 111.4 points per contest. I just don't see DeRozan cashing the over in this spot.

Key Trend: DeRozan has scored 22 or fewer points in three of his last four games.