Why the Astros will have the Cardinals' number tonight

Happy Wednesday, sports fans! It's Chris Bengel back in your inbox with your HQ PM Newsletter.

The 2023 NHL Draft goes down on Wednesday night, and much like last week's NBA Draft, it's a foregone conclusion who the top pick will be. Connor Bedard is set to become a member of the Chicago Blackhawks by day's end. Bedard has drawn comparisons to Connor McDavid as the type of player who can completely change the fortunes of a franchise.

The Blackhawks certainly could use a savior. After all, the team traded another former No. 1 pick in the form of Patrick Kane to the Rangers last season. Over the past calendar year, they've made a flurry of trades and acquisitions with Bedard set to come in and potentially become one of the faces of the NHL ... if all goes according to plan.

As far as betting goes this evening, I've got a few MLB plays that I feel strongly about. Let's not waste any time and get to the picks!

All times Eastern |All odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Astros at Cardinals, 7:45 p.m.| Watch live: MLB.TV

• The Pick: Astros (+105)
• Key Trend: The Astros are 15-6 in their last 21 games against a team with a losing record.

It hasn't exactly been a stellar stretch for the defending World Series champion Astros lately. After all, they have dropped eight of their last 11 games while struggling to put runs on the board at times. Still, I'm confident that Houston will get the job done for us in this spot.

The Astros definitely have the advantage when it comes to Wednesday's pitching matchup. Right-hander Cristian Javier will be on the bump, and he's had a great track record throughout the first half of the 2023 season. Javier has been consistent thus far as he's produced a 7-1 record to go along with a 3.25 ERA on the year. The Astros starter has tallied a 5-0 mark and a 1.89 ERA in his past nine starts. Javier did have a rough outing against the Mets in his most recent go, but he's yielded two or fewer runs in six of those nine starts.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have arguably been one of the most disappointing teams in all of baseball this season. Despite the NL Central race being rather weak, the Cardinals haven't been able to get out of their own way. One of the team's biggest areas of weakness has been their pitching as they own a 4.23 ERA as a team. Veteran starter Miles Mikolas likely won't be any different in this spot as he owns a 11.11 career ERA when facing the Astros. Mikolas has surrendered 13 earned runs over his last three starts, including giving up at least five earned runs in two of those outings.

Reds at Orioles, 7:05 p.m.| Watch live: MLB.TV

• The Pick: Over 9.5 runs (-110)
• Key Trend:The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.

The Reds came through for us on the moneyline Tuesday, and we're going to be counting on them yet again here. With two pitchers that aren't exactly lighting the world on fire on the mound, it's a no-brainer that I'm on the over in this particular spot.

Reds starting pitcher Luke Weaver is a sieve when it comes to allowing runs. Over the course of his MLB career, Weaver owns a 5.04 ERA and has never lived up to the billing of being a top pitching prospect. It's been more of the same this season. The left-hander has a 1-2 record to go along with a massive 6.86 ERA in 12 starts. Weaver has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last four starts, including giving up five earned runs on seven hits in just 3 1/3 innings against the Braves in his last outing. The Orioles currently rank 10th in the majors in runs scored, so I expect Baltimore to put a handful of runs on the board against Weaver.

Meanwhile, the Orioles brought in Kyle Gibson in the offseason to be a veteran arm in their rotation. Gibson has been solid at times with an 8-5 record, but doesn't have the type of stuff that is going to blow anybody's socks off. The right-hander owns a 4.30 ERA on the year, and has surrendered at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. Gibson is coming off of an outing in which the Mariners tagged him for five earned runs on seven hits across just three innings. The Reds possess an offense that has scored the eighth-most runs in baseball, so they should be able to push a good amount across here.

White Sox at Angels, 9:38 p.m.| Watch live: MLB.TV

• The Pick: Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
• Key Trend: Giolito has recorded at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four starts.

White Sox starter Lucas Giolito had a season to forget in 2022 as he produced a 4.90 ERA despite having a winning record. However, Giolito has bounced back with a productive campaign so far this season. With that in mind, I'm backing his strikeouts prop in this spot.

Giolito has been quite consistent throughout the first half of the campaign. The veteran right-hander has racked up at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four outings, including tallying 10 against the Red Sox in his most recent start. It also doesn't hurt that the Angels have recorded the 11th-most strikeouts in all of baseball, so I'm confident that Giolito will continue his strong stretch.