Will this Anthony Davis trend continue in Game 2?

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Thursday, May 18, 2023

I had to get up earlier this morning for non-work reasons, but I took solace in the fact that the PGA Championship was starting, and I'd be able to watch it for a bit. Unfortunately, it turns out it was too cold in Rochester, N.Y. this morning, and the start of the tournament had to be delayed because of it.

Now, I took my first golf lesson last week, and I've been to my second lesson and multiple solo sessions on the driving range since, OK? I'm a golf expert now. While I don't consider myself a hero, one of those days I went to the range was early Sunday morning. It was 52 and cloudy, all right? Did that keep me from putting on a lightweight hoodie and getting in the car? Heck no, it didn't. I soldiered through, and there weren't millions of dollars on the line. Heck, I paid to do it.

Have golfers gone soft? Looks like it, folks.

Speaking of those softies on the tour, keep up with everything at Oak Hill in our tracker.

Patrick Mahomes is trying to steal a hockey team from Arizona.

College football coaching hire superlatives.

Now let's pick some games, unless you're too cold to read further, you big baby.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The Hot Ticket

Lakers at Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Key Trend: Davis is averaging 39.1 PAR per game in the playoffs.

The Pick: Anthony Davis Under 41.5 Points, Assists & Rebounds (-117)

The Lakers lost Game 1, but Anthony Davis had a monster performance. He finished with 40 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists. That's pretty good for both him and us, because it seems to have raised expectations a bit heading into Game 2. You may remember Davis having a huge performance in Game 1 against the Warriors, too. In that game, he finished with 30 points, 23 rebounds and five assists for a total PAR of 58.

It was the only time in the series Davis eclipsed the 41.5 mark they've set for his prop tonight. In 13 games this postseason, Davis is averaging 39.1 PAR in 13 games and has only gone over 41.5 in four of those games (five in 14 if we include the play-in). In the four games he's gone over, he hasn't finished below 50 PAR, averaging 53 per game. In the other eight games, he hasn't finished higher than 40, averaging 37 per game.

So we should probably know pretty early how this game will go, but it's worth pointing out how Davis has performed the games after the huge performance. After posting 50 PAR in Game 2 against Memphis, he finished with 25 in the next game. Then he went off for 51 PAR in Game 4and had only 31 in Game 5. After his 58 PAR in Game 1 against the Warriors, he finished with 22 in Game 2.

You see the trend, right? Maybe tonight is the first time Davis posts monster performances in consecutive games. He's an incredible player, so we can't put it past him. Still, history suggests it's far more likely he won't.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game:The SportsLine Projection Model doesn't like much here tonight, but our SportsLine experts have found no shortage of props they're going after.

The Picks

NBA

The Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 Rebounds & Assists (-101) --An NBA playoff series usually comes down to two things: which team has the most talent -- because that typically wins out in the long run -- and which team can make the best adjustments from game to game.

Well, after Nikola Jokic went off for a 34-21-14 line in Game 1 while shooting 71% from the field, the Lakers will defend him differently tonight. I suspect we see Anthony Davis take a more active role rather than the free safety role that backfired on Tuesday. It could be effective, considering Davis is one of the best defenders in the NBA. That's why I'm expecting Jokic to take on more of a distributor role tonight. Plus, even if the Lakers don't change anything, he finished with 21 rebounds and 14 assists. He's pretty good.

PGA Championship

Soccer

Freiburg vs. Wolfsburg, Friday, 2:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN+The Pick: Freiburg (+129) --I don't usually include soccer plays during the week, but with only two MLB games tonight, and my established expertise as an NHL bettor, I'm going a little out of the norm today. Plus, you know, this is a tremendous value play. As the season comes to an end, Freiburg finds itself three points out of fourth place in Germany's Bundesliga. That's important because only the top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and there's a lot of money to be made in the Champions League. So this match is extremely important for Freiburg.

It's important for Wolfsburg, too, as it's hoping to hold on to sixth place and the Conference League bid that comes with it. Unfortunately for Wolfsburg, it's been awful on the road this season, even if its overall record doesn't show it. Wolfsburg has averaged 1.5 points on the road compared to 1.56 at home, but its expected goal (xG) differential tells a much different tale. At home, Wolfsburg has an xG edge of 0.49 per match. On the road, it's at -0.54. That's an entire goal's worth of difference, and that's significant. Meanwhile, Freiburg has been better at home too, and much better defensively.

SportsLine Pick of the Day:I don't like much in either of tonight's MLB games, but two of our SportsLine handicappers are tilted toward one side of the Blue Jays/Yankees game.

PGA Championship HQ Coverage

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