January 15, 2024

A Humble Path To Success in 2024

Dear Reader,

By Tim Melvin

2024 is finally here.

The overriding question of everyone interested in markets is, "What will happen in 2024?"

Some folks are going to give you careful, precise predictions about what will happen in 2024 in stocks, bonds, bitcoin, real estate, and every other financial asset you could possibly conceive.

Punch those people and get away.

Quickly.

Making predictions is a silly game in normal years.

It is just a marketing stunt more than useful advice.

Most predictions will be wrong.

This could be it Americas final bull run. By Q3, data indicates a recession could set in.

But before that happensThis bull market is ripping.

Thats why you need to see these 3 stocks flying under the radar while you still have a chance. Go here now.

The Deceptive Charm of Accurate Predictions

Since most of them are wrong, there is no penalty box for those who miss the mark.

However, that handful of folks who come close will be showered with love and affection by the marketing departments of the firms that employ them.

Past predictors have raised hundreds of millions and even billions of dollars from investors rushing to cash on their predictive brilliance. Most of them fall short of the market with future predictions with results that are, well, predictable.

2024: An Atypical Year Ahead

In a normal year, that is how the predictions game plays out. 2024 is probably not going to be a normal year. Look at how the year is starting out...

The major stock market indexes are trading at elevated valuations. The S&P 500 is trading at 25.4 times earnings.The yield on the index is a whopping 1.53%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading at 25.8 times earnings with a yield of just 1.9%.

I know valuations do not scream SELL NOW, but they whisper, "Be Careful."

High valuations do not always mean the markets will collapse, but all market collapses happen when markets are expensive. The geopolitical situation is less than calm.

He has no formal training and became one of the most successful traders in the world.

He boasts a 90%-win rate over many years and market conditions.

All while living 2,797 miles away from Wall Street.Now hes planning his next big move to kick off 2024.

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Worldwide Political and Economic Shifts

The war in Ukraine rages on. Russia has no intention of stopping the assault anytime soon. The war in the Middle East continues, and there is a very real danger it will expand into a greater regional conflict.

The United States, Britain, and France have all attacked Houthi rebel sites in retaliation for attacks on shipping trying to get to the Suez Canal.

Iran is getting involved in that conflict with potentially disastrous consequences. Xi Jinping has made it clear that his plans include reunifying China and Taiwan.

He went so far as to tell President Biden at a recent summit that while the time frame had not been decided, reunification would happen.

Then there is theelection ...

It is not just our election here in the U.S., as whacky as that one could become between now and November.

Half of the world's population will be casting votes this year. In addition to our little dustup, The European Union will be voting on new leadership.

Taiwan voted this weekend, and I am still digesting those results and the global political and economic ramifications. Russia has its farce of an election.

In India Prime Minister Modi seems a lock to be reelected. Indonesia and Mexico have electoral contests.

So does Austria, which many observers think may continue Europe's move to the right.

Forget the politics of all the elections. The potential economic consequences are staggering.

The Debt Dilemma and Its Impact

Then there is the problem of the $9 trillion.

That is the total US government debt that must be rolled over this year. We have to find buyers willing to take on $9 trillion of debt to stay even. Any new debt will be issued on top of that.

To make it interesting, China and Japan are sellers, not buyers, of treasuries today.

The Fed and US banks have dramatically curtailed their buying of government securities. Basic economics tell us that an excess supply and lower demand usually lead to lower prices. Lower prices for bonds mean higher interest rates.

If we have a government shutdown or some other piece of political theatre that further lowers confidence in our government, the costs of issuing the new debt will go even higher.

My Strategy for Navigating 2024

This is all just the 30,000-foot view of things happening in the world and the economy right now. Anyone trying to predict this madness is out of their mind.

So, what do we do to make money in 2024? The same thing that has worked since the first markets existed.

Quit predicting and start reacting to what markets do. If the market sells off and quality assets and companies can be purchased at bargain basement prices, buy them.

If excess enthusiasm pushes those assets and companies to stupid levels, sell them.

It is a recipe for market success that has always worked and will always work.

Looking Forward: More Insights to Come

Are there things you should be doing and thinking about right now?

Yes, there are.

We will talk about those in my video later this week.

Stay Informed,

Tim Melvin

Options masters Matt Maley and Nic Chahine will give their top Jan 2024 insight on Wed, Jan 17 at 6PM ET.
There will also be a $1,000 giveaway for one lucky person.*

Get your free ticket right here.

GIVEAWAY RULES:
*NO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. A purchase will not increase your chances of winning. Open to legal residents of the 50 United States and District of Columbia age 18 or older who attend the live "Cash Flow: 3 Ways Experts Drive Consistent Income" webinar hosted by Matt Maley and Nic Chahine on January 17, 2024 at 6pm ET on Zoom.

To enter, attend the live webinar on 1/17/24 at 6pm ET using the Zoom registration link provided. All webinar attendees will be automatically entered into the giveaway. One winner will be randomly selected from all eligible entries on or around January 24, 2024.

The winner will be contacted via email provided during webinar registration and will have 72 hours to claim their $1000 prize, to be awarded via PayPal. Taxes and other expenses not stated herein are the responsibility of the giveaway winner.

In the event of disputes regarding the giveaway or selection of the winner, the decisions of Benzinga shall be final and binding.

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